Forecasting Across contexts

    Homework Instructions
    Please address the following aspects for each of the scenarios on the next
    three slides.
    1. What forecasting method would you recommend?
    2. Why would that method be appropriate?
    3. What data, resources, etc. would you need to implement your
    recommended method?
    4. What challenges do you foresee when trying to implement your
    recommended method? (Hint: data, resources, cost, etc.)
    Short, one-to-two sentence answers per question should be enough.
    Scenario 1
    A seasoned film producer is contemplating a new venture producing what she
    believes will be the next blockbuster TV series. Although she seems to have a
    hard time deciding on how big a budget to line up for the project, she knows
    from her extensive experience that any budget she ends up deciding on will
    have to depend on the TV series anticipated revenues. Having worked with you
    on past ventures, she is convinced that you are the right person to help her
    estimate the TV series revenue generation potential. How would you go about
    assisting with this high-stake task?
    (In other words, tell me how you would produce an estimate of the TV series future revenues.)
    Scenario 2
    You are the Chief Financial Officer at a major multinational pharmaceutical
    company. The VP of R&D has approached you regarding a one-of-a-kind drug
    that she believes her team can develop over the next two-to-three years. She
    emphatically argued that the drug has the potential to cure a disease that has
    been shown to affect a well-defined demographic in the Indian subcontinent.
    How would you go about deciding whether to pursue this project or not?
    (Be thorough in your answer. You can use hypotheticals as you see fit. Hint: A good forecast would
    help, but how would you go about producing one? )
    Scenario 3
    You are a seasoned forecasting expert working for a major consumer
    packaged goods (CPG) company in the food industry. One of the promising
    college graduates that you just hired into your team is assigned the task of
    forecasting demand for one of the companys flagship breakfast cereals. He is
    nervous about the task and is asking for guidance. Knowing that the product in
    question has been a category leader for close to a decade, what guidance
    would you provide to your new hire? How should he approach his new task?
    (Tell me how you would recommend the new hire produce his forecast.)

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